WHERE TO INVEST IN NIGERIA IN JULY 2009???

WHERE TO INVEST IN NIGERIA IN JULY 2009???
Fixed Income, Quoted Stocks, un-quoted companies, Alternative Investments (in this case, Real Estate), Ponzi Schemes, Tianshi Products, Foreign Exchange transactions etc etc etc

All answers on a post-card please. In all honesty, all responses are welcome.

The Stock Market
The stock market has picked itself up from its lows. However the easy money of 2007/08 is not so easy to come by. The Nigerian Stock Market is behaving more like any other stock market in the world. The thundering herd has moved on and the market is left for those that use intelligence to pick their stocks. What shall it be – banks, cement, beer, manufacturing, technology, mutual funds?. You take your pick but please have a sound reason for doing so. Especially considering that we are no longer seeing 300% returns in 3 months. A mature market’s long term average on stocks is what, 9%? Nigerian stocks are still providing returns well above this, if you invested earlier in the year at the bottom of the market, you may easily be seeing returns close to 100% but did you have the balls to invest at the bottom? P.S. analysis is also not so easy to come by, so please do your own, there are opportunities to be found. As an aside, the banking stocks have recently taken a pounding with all the negative pronouncements coming out of CBN. P/E ratios can be found as low as 5-6. Now appears to be the time to buy. Unfortunately, I bought a little too early, but will sit things out.

The Fixed Income Market (Fixing your money)
What is Nigeria’s current inflation rate – circa 11%. What is the average rate at which a bank will be willing to provide you with a guaranteed return for locking up your money for a particular period of time. Approximately a 15% guaranteed return. One also has to take into account foreign exchange fluctuations. Are you loosing or gaining on the exchange rate. 15% is not bad compared to UK/US rates of 0.6% or thereabouts. 15% is not so great considering inflation of 11%. A 4% real return with a fairly large chunk of risk thrown in. Choose the stronger banks to provide you with a lower risk threshold and a hence a level of comfort that you will get your money back. Ask your new CBN Governor, Sanusi Lamido, which banks are considered strong and which are not.

Real Estate
I have written in the past about the interesting face of Nigerian Real Estate, specifically, Lagos and Abuja. With plots of land and finished property selling for astronomical sums of money, annual yields from rental returns could easily be below 5%. Compare this to fixing your money in a bank for 15%. A no-brainer perhaps or perhaps not. Why the attraction then to real estate. What is the long-term appreciation of land and property in Nigeria – 20/30/40% per annum. So perhaps not such a bad investment after all. Prices have stagnated or even fallen over the past year. Is this the time to buy? I do not have answers to these questions. Real Estate will always be a good investment if purchased at the right time and in the right place. Additional analysis needs to be done as to whether to invest in commercial office space, retail, residential, vacant land or some other permutation of real estate that will give you the greatest return over time.

Sorry, right now, it appears I have more questions than answers, but hey, that’s why investing is such good fun, you never have all the answers and you can gain a lot by adding the value that comes from doing your own research. I caveat that with the fact that investment can also be painful when you are losing money…

UPDATE

Sat 18th July

I am coming to the tail end of an eventful 2 week holiday. Not quite spent lolling by a pool. More a time to catch up with the outside world and take care of some personal business. I spent some time in the UK and would like to thank all those that asked me to please update my blog. It’s good to know there are those that remember my blog well.

The family is still in the UK and I am not yet back at work. I am in the rare position of having the time to think for more than 2 minutes at a stretch. I hope that it is not the availability of this time however rare that is enabling me to update my blog. In other words, I hope my going back to work on Monday will not put a stop to my re-starting my blog. We shall see…

Work Pressures

Every now and then I get up from my desk after lunch and go for a walk in the hot Nigerian sun, dust and rugged roads, pausing every now and then to cool down under a tree and watch Lagos life go by.

I do this because I have to remind myself that I am a human being and not a Central Processing Unit in a computer. I also do it to remind myself that there is a greater life beyond the four walls of my office.

I am grateful I have a job but I want more...

God bless

A little happiness from lifes little pleasures

I love my jogging. This Saturday morning, nice and early about 7.15am, I put on my jogging stuff, limbered up and jogged out the gate and up the road heading for the club (only about a 15 minute jog). I love to jog because it clears my head, I leave my weekday work pressures behind and I get all kinds of ideas in my head that connect the important dots in my life together.

When I got to the club all nice and sweaty, I changed to my trunks, had a shower, stood by the deep end of the empty pool and dived in. Sheer blisssssss

As I swam slowly on my back through the water, admiring the early morning blue sky and thanking God for my life (always very important) I realized that there are certain things in life that however much money you may or may not make, you will not want to change. For me, whatever else may or may not change going forward in my life, I pray that there will always be a place for my jog and swim. Truly a blessing consisting of good health, availability of time and the means to enjoy it all (not everyone has the legs for a jog or the water to drink, not to mention swim in or even the good health to do either).

I think that If you can pick out the things in your life that give you happiness, things that will not change in your life even if you become a billionaire (for me, playing with the kids, time with my wife, my jog and a swim, thorntons toffee, a good cup of coffee, reading a good book, travel etc etc etc) and if you can do these things a bit more often and do a bit less of the things that remove happiness from your life then you won’t need to be a billionaire because you will already have the richness and blessings of life. Now that is the true meaning of happiness.

That’s my word of wisdom for the month.

Thanks for the comments, keep them coming

I am touched that I still have loyal readers even though I haven't been at all regular in my postings.

Thanks for the comments all, and keep them coming

Munachi

THE QUINTESSENTIAL NIGERIAN WORKER

THE QUINTESSENTIAL NIGERIAN WORKER – 31/03/09

The Nigerian worker aspires to a point where his table is cleared of blame. This is achieved by ensuring there is somebody else is to blame. Preferably some patsy who is too weak to fight back. The strong overpower the weak.

The perfect Nigerian worker sails through his day with very little worry. He is not a team player. He is not here to help you or to provide solutions to your problems or to support you in any way. He is here to support himself and if you wish to support him, even better, as long as you deliver to his requirements and on time. He only believes in team work when it is useful to him meeting his own deliverables. Otherwise, it is an alien concept.

I come from an environment where it is encouraged to be a team player. In this environment, being a team player is asking for it. You never, ever take on some one elses work. Make a mistake and you are the one to take the blame for everything that has gone wrong since the other person started in the company. I just had an ear full from some one who was telling me what to do to correct his mistakes. I had taken on board his requests and subsequently when things did not go well, he started screaming in my ear that I did not follow his instructions.

I could have told him to go shove it but that would not be professional of me. He’s already going to stew in his own juices, I don’t have to make it worse for him (I should make it worse for him really, that’s probably what he would have done if the tables were turned)

Do I seek to become the perfect Nigerian worker with my tightly delineated job spec. and woe betide anyone that comes to ask for anything beyond my spec. or do I continue down the lonely path of being there for everyone, the quintessential team player that wins no medals for supporting the team (if such a concept exists)?

Hmmmm time will tell, time will tell…

Tips for surviving 2009 (The Nigerian Context)

INTRODUCTION: TIPS FOR INDIVIDUALS:
“SURVIVING 2009”
(OUR FINANCIAL PERSPECTIVE– FOR INDIVIDUALS)

FORECASTS:
For once, both optimists and pessimist agree on one thing: 2009 would
probably be one of the most challenging times in living history for
most people. Even those who predicted that Nigeria was too detached
from the global economic crisis have all reversed their positions.

Warren Buffet (arguably the greatest investor of our time) says: The
secret to making money is to be cautious when everyone is greedy and
to be greedy when everyone is cautious. But a lot of questions are on
our minds: Have the Nigerian stock market reached its bottom?

Should I average down by investing at these low prices? Is there a real
estate bubble? Will Naira depreciate further? What else can I invest in?
Will I keep my job in 2009? Will there be a banking crisis or consolidation?
How best can I survive in 2009? This is our attempt to answer
all these questions and more.

Many experts on the Nigerian economy agree on the following predictions:

Foreign exchange rate will depreciate further to between N145
to N155 per US$1 by the year end 2009; Nigeria ’s foreign reserves may
have halved by 2009 ending, from about US$52billion in December
2008 ($63bn in September 08); Prime lending rates would range between
20% and 25% depending on CBN’s willingness to print money
and the mode of financing our N1 trillion deficit budget; Crude Oil
prices would range between $25 to $55 per barrel depending on
weather conditions and events in the middle east; Real Estate prices
would adjust downwards by between 10% to 50% (especially in Ikoyi,
Lekki and Victoria Island); Nigeria ’s cocoa exports would drop significantly;
There would be huge swings in share prices (upwards and
downward) with an average slow trend upwards; Unemployment
would rise (even amongst bankers); Consumer confidence would drop
and crime rate would rise; and the Foreign exchange ‘black’ market
would re-emerge and trade at a premium of between 5% to 10% above
the official exchange rate.

Generally, all you need in 2009 are the 3 C’s: CASH, COURAGE
and CALM. CASH to survive and take advantage of all the
golden opportunities which will arise. COURAGE to aggressively
implement all the highlighted recommendations/Tips; and
CALM to remain steadfast.

Other Tips Include:

Determine & Monitor your Net worth: Net worth is what is
left after you add all your Assets and subtract all your Liabilities.
For you, Assets include: Shares which have been dematerialized
into CSCS at current market prices; Real Estate with proper title
documents; Cash in Bank; Gold and any asset with a high probability
to appreciate and easily determinable market values. Please
note that items like cars, cloths and furniture are deliberately excluded
and are considered dead assets. Liabilities include: Loans,
mortgages, and anything guaranteed to cause consistent cash out
flows in the future. Your aim in 2009 is to measure and increase
your assets/net worth consistently on a monthly basis.

Form a Cash Backed Family Reserve: In 2009 we recommend
you have a Cash Backed Family reserve in your savings or Fixed
deposit account. This can be calculated by estimating your total
family expenditure for 6 months assuming you and your spouse
lost both Jobs today. If you do not have this reserve, sell what
you can and cut all unnecessary expenditure until you can form
this reserve. This amount should be left unused until 2009 ending.
Once you have your cash reserve you can stop saving and
start investing. Every additional inflow after your cash reserve
forms part of your investible funds.

Avoid Debt:With astronomical interest rates you should be very
careful before you use any debt in Nigeria .

Live below your means: If you cannot save/invest at least 10%
of your income you are living above your means. To live below
your means you should save/invest about 20% of your monthly
income, every other expenditure should be cut off or suspended.

Take a Health insurance and a life Insurance: This eliminates
2 major financial risks you and your dependents may face.

Invest in Real Estate using Investment Clubs: With the proposed
decline in real estate, small investments in different real
estate ventures, with minimal debt would be preferable to large
investments. This form of investment is usually available using an
Investment Club.

TIPS FOR 2009:

Invest in Equities: Invest with a 2 year perspective in selected highquality
company equities with higher dividend yields and lower P/E
ratio’s compared with their pairs. Buy gradually, buy what you understand,
and avoid stocks known to have manipulated prices. In addition
you may Invest in trusted Mutual Funds. Investment in Private Equity
can be very profitable if done via experienced managers. We recommend
about 20% of your investible funds should be allocated to equities.

Invest in Fixed Income: Invest in Commercial papers, Bonds, Guaranteed
investments, Treasury Bills, and foreign currency which can be
easily liquidated to take advantage of interesting opportunities. We
recommend that about 60% of your investible funds should be in this
form.

Like Buffet SEEK ONLY ‘DEALS’: In 2009 a lot of once-in-a-lifetime
deals would emerge, however only those who are ready with
cash would be able to take advantage quickly. Make it a point not to
part with your cash unless it’s a “deal of a life time”. Don’t be in a
hurry to invest. Always walk away if you are unsure. More deals would
come subsequently. The opportunity cost of spending your cash is
high.

Reconfirm the status of your Pension (PFA) contribution: Those
little monthly contributions could amount to a fortune in future.

Safeguard your assets and yourself: This include enhancing your
immediate security as crime rate is expected to increase. Also ,insure
your House and any major asset.

Do a Will or a Trust: As morbid as it may sound, this would make a
world of difference to your dependants, just in case the unfortunate
happens. Form the habit now and continue updating the Will as you
increase your net-worth.

Set 2 major Financial Goals: i.e. Education for you and your kids
and Housing for the family. Invest towards them aggressively.

Remain Motivated and seek opportunities aggressively: This is
the time to remain motivated and violently seek opportunities.
No gentle man survives the war front.

Do a Budget and stick to it meticulously: To manage your expenditure
you need to measure them continuously.

In Conclusion aggressively preserve your cash. This would give you
more options in 2009. Most importantly, be OPTIMISTIC not necessarily
about the future which you cannot control, but about your ability to
make the best out of whatever the future presents at you. Amidst this
uncertainty, most of the traditional assumption that determine the
industry boundaries/rules would have silently changed. Now more
than ever, a Game Changing Idea will work.